Archive for the ‘Europe’ Category

By Steven Erlanger

Supporters of Francois Hollande, the Socialist Party candidate, cheered the early election returns in Paris.

The Socialist candidate, François Hollande, won a narrow victory in Sunday’s first round of France’s presidential elections, riding promises of economic growth and a general dislike for the incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, into a favorable position before a runoff with Mr. Sarkozy on May 6.

The strong showing by the left and anger on the political extremes seemed to reflect a desire for change in France after 17 years of centrist, conservative presidents. And it could continue an anti-incumbency trend that began with the economic crisis in Western Europe, where center-right governments dominate from Britain to Spain to Germany.

It may also represent the first stirrings of a challenge to the German-dominated narrative of the euro crisis, which holds that public debt and runaway spending are the main culprits and that austerity must precede growth. Over the weekend, the Dutch government was left tottering after failing to gain a majority in support of austerity measures, and demonstrators in the Czech Republic turned out in the greatest numbers since 1989 to protest a tax increase and budget cuts.

The French vote “is a reaction against austerity, and austerity is you,” Mr. Hollande’s campaign manager, Pierre Moscovici, said to the leader of Mr. Sarkozy’s party, Jean-François Copé.

Source: The Economist

But the vote was also about an electorate that has grown increasingly disenchanted with politics and the political class. Marie-Claude Noël, 72, of Amiens in northern France, said she had voted for Mr. Sarkozy but by default, “because politics is a nest of vipers.”

“The situation is so catastrophic that whoever wins it won’t make much difference,” she said. “The French want change but only on the condition that it doesn’t change anything for them.”

Mr. Hollande finished with 28.5 percent of the ballots cast and Mr. Sarkozy with 27.1 percent, according to figures released by the Interior Ministry after the last polls closed. They were followed by Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front with 18.2 percent, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the Left Front party with 11.1 percent, the centrist François Bayrou with 9.1 percent and five other candidates with minimal support.

While Mr. Sarkozy’s total was only a percentage point or two short of Mr. Hollande’s, the view of most experts has been that unless Mr. Sarkozy took the first round, he would have a hard time winning the runoff. The strong showing by Ms. Le Pen gave some heart Sunday night to Mr. Sarkozy’s supporters, since the two share similar themes about immigration, radical Islam, and law and order. But a number of Le Pen voters have said they will abstain or vote against Mr. Sarkozy in the second round. “This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe,” Mr. Hollande, 57, said after voting. “That’s why many people are watching us. They’re wondering not so much what the winner’s name will be, but especially what policies will follow.” Read more…

March 2012

By Waya Quiviger, Executive Director of the Master in International Relations at IE School of Arts & Humanities

From March 22^nd to 28^th, the 2011/2012 MIR intake traveled to Brussels to visit leading European Institutions and NATO. The European Union is a core element in the MIR curriculum and the trip to Brussels represents a unique opportunity for students to interact with key decision makers from the organizations they study in class.

The students started off the trip with a visit to the European Commission. Several representatives from the newly created European External Action Service, the Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, the Directorate General for Home Affairs, the Directorate-General for Agricultural and Rural Development and the Directorate General for Budget explained the inner workings of their departments’ day to day operations. On Monday, the class headed to the European Economic and Social Committee. They were greeted, like every year, by Charis Xirouchakis, Head of the Unit for Visits and Publications. His informed and candid account of the role of the EESC within the EU made a positive impression on the class. On the same day, students visited the Committee of the Regions and the Parliament. The speaker at the Committee of the Regions clearly outlined in what way regional interests were integrated in commission proposals and how the EESC and the Committee (both advisory bodies) worked in complementary ways. At the Parliament, the class had the chance to meet with several MEPs. All gave interesting accounts of their experiences in the voting process and were quite open to questions from the audience.

MIR students also spent an entire morning at the NATO headquarters during which they were addressed by officials from different units including José Maria López-Navarro, Information Officer for Spain & Portugal, Steffen Elgersma, Euro-Atlantic Integration & Partnership, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, Joaquin Molina, Crisis Management Political Section, Operations Division and Charles Andréo, Information Officer, NATO Countries Section, Engagement Directorate, Public Diplomacy Division. Mr. Andréo briefed the class on how to join an online competition to participate in NATO’s upcoming annual conference in Chicago. Students asked speakers questions on NATO’s role in Afghanistan, Libya, and the nascent conflict in Syria.

On Tuesday evening, students met with members of the EU/Arab Forum, a non-profit organization based in Brussels that promotes EU/Arab debates and discussions. Organizers had prepared a fascinating simulation game in which students were asked to split into teams and represent key actors in a fictitious Arab country currently going through a political transition. The game was loosely based on Egypt and different groups included the army, NGOs, religious minorities, international organizations, the government etc. The simulation lasted 3 hours and students wholly enjoyed engaging and negotiating with each other.

Last but not least, the class had the chance to visit the UN offices in Brussels. Speakers Carlos Jiménez and Nicola Harrington discussed careers in the UN and the UN-EU partnership.

Read more…

By Miles Johnson in Madrid and Jude Webber in Buenos Aires

Antonio Brufau, Repsol ececutive chairman, has vowed to fight for at least $10.5bn in compensation from Argentina

The Spanish group Repsol has accused Argentina of seizing YPF, its local oil company, in an attempt to cover up the country’s economic and social problems, and said it would seek at least $10.5bn in compensation as tensions escalated between Madrid and Buenos Aires.

The European Commission lent its support to Spain and Repsol said it would launch international arbitration against the government of Cristina Fernández. In a fiery, televised, speech on Monday, Argentina’s president said she was sending a bill to Congress to expropriate 51 per cent of YPF.

“These acts will not go unpunished,” said Antonio Brufau, Repsol’s executive chairman during a two-hour press conference on Tuesday, at which he attacked Argentina’s “revisionism” over YPF’s success, and its energy policy over the past decade.

“The Argentinian president has committed an illegal and unjustifiable act following a campaign intended to push down the share price of YPF and allow expropriation at a low price,” he said. “This is just a way of covering up the social and economic crisis facing Argentina.”

Spain has promised “clear and decisive action” against the move in the areas of trade, diplomacy, industry and energy, and summoned Argentina’s ambassador on Tuesday morning.

Madrid has expressed its confidence that fellow European Union members will support it against Argentina, while Mariano Rajoy, prime minister, is using a previously scheduled trip to Latin America to rally allies.

The European Union signalled it would throw its full diplomatic and economic weight behind the Spanish government. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said he was “seriously disappointed” by the Argentine move and called on Ms Fernandez to find a “mutually agreed solution” to the stand-off that does not harm Argentina’s business environment. Read more…

As published in www.ft.com on April 17, 2012.

By Paul Krugman

On Saturday The Times reported on an apparently growing phenomenon in Europe: “suicide by economic crisis,” people taking their own lives in despair over unemployment and business failure. It was a heartbreaking story. But I’m sure I wasn’t the only reader, especially among economists, wondering if the larger story isn’t so much about individuals as about the apparent determination of European leaders to commit economic suicide for the Continent as a whole.

Just a few months ago I was feeling some hope about Europe. You may recall that late last fall Europe appeared to be on the verge of financial meltdown; but the European Central Bank, Europe’s counterpart to the Fed, came to the Continent’s rescue. It offered Europe’s banks open-ended credit lines as long as they put up the bonds of European governments as collateral; this directly supported the banks and indirectly supported the governments, and put an end to the panic.

The question then was whether this brave and effective action would be the start of a broader rethink, whether European leaders would use the breathing space the bank had created to reconsider the policies that brought matters to a head in the first place.

But they didn’t. Instead, they doubled down on their failed policies and ideas. And it’s getting harder and harder to believe that anything will get them to change course.

Consider the state of affairs in Spain, which is now the epicenter of the crisis. Never mind talk of recession; Spain is in full-on depression, with the overall unemployment rate at 23.6 percent, comparable to America at the depths of the Great Depression, and the youth unemployment rate over 50 percent. This can’t go on — and the realization that it can’t go on is what is sending Spanish borrowing costs ever higher.

In a way, it doesn’t really matter how Spain got to this point — but for what it’s worth, the Spanish story bears no resemblance to the morality tales so popular among European officials, especially in Germany. Spain wasn’t fiscally profligate — on the eve of the crisis it had low debt and a budget surplus. Unfortunately, it also had an enormous housing bubble, a bubble made possible in large part by huge loans from German banks to their Spanish counterparts. When the bubble burst, the Spanish economy was left high and dry; Spain’s fiscal problems are a consequence of its depression, not its cause. Read more…

As published in www.nytimes.com on April 15, 2012 (a version of this op-ed appeared in print on April 16, 2012, on page A19 of the New York edition with the headline: Europe’s Economic Suicide).